Pump to Profit: Sustaining Returns in an Uncertain Energy Future

A review of my SPE talk about the present and future of the upstream oil & gas industry

A little over a week ago, I spoke to a group from the Society of Petroleum Engineers about the state of the upstream oil & gas industry.

The title of my walk was the title of this post: “Pump to Profit: Sustaining Returns in an Uncertain Energy Future”.

I laid out the short-term challenges facing the industry, with tariffs and the recent OPEC+ supply announcement high on the list.

I then discussed the long-term challenges around global oil & gas demand forecasts out to 2050. I focused on a couple of the most bullish scenarios I could find, pointing out that even in forecasts where oil & gas demand continues to grow through at least 2050, the industry will still face structure constraints it’s never seen before.

Next I showed how the industry’s focus is switching from oil to gas, which comes with important implications around capital flows, investor expectations, and the performance of various industry stakeholders, e.g. oilfield services (OFS).

I highlighted that while the industry on the whole faces these challenges, unique hurdles arise for exploration and production (E&P) operators versus OFS companies.

Then I closed with what I argue is the path forward that will allow the industry to thrive amidst all this turbulence.

Image generated by Google Gemini via the prompt “a massive crude oil tanker traveling through turbulent ocean waters in the midst of a storm”

While I spent a fair bit of time talking about the industry’s challenges, I wanted the talk to ultimately offer hope for an exciting, transformative path ahead.

As always, the oil & gas industry is not for the faint of heart.

But if you have the stomach for all the uncertainty and disruption, you can make an incredible contribution in this space.

Now let’s dive into my talk.

Short-term challenges for upstream oil & gas

I began my talk with a discussion of the short-term challenges facing the upstream oil & gas industry.